Ka la 15 Motšeanong 2025, tlaleho ea morao-rao ea JPMorgan e boletse esale pele hore karolelano ea theko ea aluminium halofo ea bobeli ea 2025 e tla ba $ 2325 ka tone. Ponelopele ea theko ea aluminium e tlase haholo ho feta kahlolo e nang le tšepo ea "khaello ea phepelo e susumetsoang ke khaello ea thepa ho $2850" mathoasong a Hlakubele, e bonts'ang ho leka-lekana ha mebaraka ea nako e khuts'oane ke litsi.

Khatelo-pele e neng e sa lebelloa ea tumellano ea khoebo ea China US e nolofalitse litebello tse se nang tšepo bakeng sa tlhokahalo ea aluminium. Theko ea pele ea China: Kamora ho theoleloa ha lithibelo tsa litefiso, bareki ba Machaena ba potlakisa ho bokelloa ha lisebelisoa tsa theko e tlase, ba nyolla litheko ka nako e khuts'oane.

1. Lintlha tsa nako e khutšoanyane tsa ho khanna le likhanyetsano tsa 'maraka

Theko e tlase le ho hloka botsitso

Phatlalatso e ncha ea thepa e tlaase: Lisebelisoa tsa aluminium tse hlakileng lefatšeng ka bophara li ka koahela matsatsi a ka bang 15 feela a sebelisoang, boemo bo tlaase ka ho fetisisa ho tloha 2016, bo tšehetsang theko ea theko;

Structural demand substitution: Sekhahla sa kholo ea tlhokeho ea aluminium mafapheng a ntseng a hlaha joalo kalikoloi tse ncha tsa matlamme lisebelisoa tsa photovoltaic li fihlile ho 6% -8%, ka mokhoa o itseng o fokotsa kotsi ea ho fokotseha ha tlhoko ea likoloi tsa setso.

2. Temoso ea Kotsi le Matšoenyeho a Nako e Telele

Lehlakore la tlhoko ea aluminium 'black swan'

Ho hula indasteri ea likoloi: Haeba thekiso ea likoloi tsa khale tsa mafura e theoha ho feta kamoo ho neng ho lebelletsoe (joalo ka ho putlama ha moruo Europe le Amerika), litheko tsa aluminium li ka oela ka tlase ho $2000/ton.

Tšusumetso ea litšenyehelo tsa matla: Ho feto-fetoha ha maemo a theko ea khase ea tlhaho ea Europe ho ka nyolla theko ea tlhahiso ea aluminium ea electrolytic, e leng se mpefatsang ho se leka-lekane ha tlhokahalo ea phepelo ea libaka.

3. Litlhahiso tsa Leano la Chain Industry

Qetello ea ho qhibilihisa: Notlela likonteraka tsa premium sebakeng sa Asia ho qoba kotsi ea ho fokotsa ho ata ha arbitrage ea Pacific.

Qetello ea ho sebetsa:Lik'hamphani tsa aluminiumetelletsa pele ho reka thepa libakeng tse tlanngoeng le ho sebelisa lifensetere tse theko e tlaase.

Lehlakore la matsete: litheko tsa aluminium li hlokolosi ka kotsi ea ho senya boemo ba tšehetso ba $ 2300.