Binciken alaƙa tsakanin masana'antun jan karfe da aluminum da kuma zurfin fassarar tasirin manufofin jadawalin kuɗin fito.

1. Masana'antar Aluminum: Daidaita Tsari a ƙarƙashin Manufofin Tariff da Tashin Aluminum da aka sake yin fa'ida.

Manufar jadawalin kuɗin fito tana tafiyar da sake fasalin sarkar samar da kayayyaki

Gwamnatin Trump ta haɓaka harajin shigo da aluminum daga 10% zuwa 25% kuma ta soke keɓancewa ga Kanada da Mexico, wanda ke tasiri kai tsaye ga yanayin kasuwancin aluminium na duniya. Dogaro da Amurka kan shigo da aluminium ya kai kashi 44%, wanda kashi 76% ya fito daga Kanada. Manufofin jadawalin kuɗin fito za su haifar da aluminium na Kanada ya juya zuwa kasuwar EU, yana haɓaka rarar wadatar EU. Bayanai na tarihi sun nuna cewa lokacin da Trump ya sanya harajin aluminium na kashi 10% a lokacin wa'adinsa na farko a cikin 2018, farashin aluminium na Shanghai da London ya sake farfadowa bayan raguwa na ɗan gajeren lokaci, wanda ke nuna cewa samar da kayayyaki da abubuwan buƙatu na duniya har yanzu suna mamaye yanayin farashin. Koyaya, a ƙarshe za a ba da kuɗin kuɗin fito ga masana'antu na ƙasa a Amurka, kamar motoci da gine-gine.

Haɓaka masana'antar aluminium ta China da damar carbon dual

A matsayinta na babbar mai samar da aluminium a duniya (wanda ke lissafin kashi 58% na samar da duniya a shekarar 2024), kasar Sin tana tukin sauye-sauyen masana'antu ta hanyar dabarun "carbon dual". Masana'antar aluminium da aka sake fa'ida sun sami haɓakar fashewar abubuwa, tare da samar da tan miliyan 9.5 a cikin 2024, haɓakar shekara-shekara na 22%, yana lissafin kashi 20% na jimlar aluminium. Yankin Delta na Kogin Yangtze ya samar da cikakkiyar sarkar masana'antar sake yin amfani da aluminium, tare da manyan masana'antu suna rage yawan kuzarin su na aluminium da aka sake fa'ida zuwa kasa da 5% na aluminum na farko. Ana amfani da samfurori da yawa a cikin ƙananan nauyin mota (yawan yawan amfani da aluminum a cikin sababbin motocin makamashi ya karu daga 3% zuwa 12%) da kuma filayen hoto (yawan aluminum da aka yi amfani da shi a cikin photovoltaics zai kai 1.8 ton miliyan ta 2024). Babban kayan aluminium na ƙarshe suna haɓaka sauya shigo da kayayyaki, kuma an yi amfani da na'urorin lithium na aluminum na ƙarni na uku na masana'antar Aluminum ta Kudu maso yammacin China Aluminum a cikin jirgin C919. Masana'antar Aluminum ta Nanshan ta zama mai ba da takardar shedar Boeing.

Tsarin samarwa da buƙatu da watsa farashi

Manufar harajin aluminum ta Amurka ta haifar da karuwar farashin shigo da kayayyaki, amma samar da gida yana da wahala a cike gibin cikin sauri. A cikin 2024, samar da aluminium na Amurka zai zama tan miliyan 8.6 kawai, kuma haɓaka ƙarfin yana iyakance ta farashin makamashi. Za a ba da kuɗin kuɗin fito don kawo ƙarshen masu amfani ta hanyar sarkar masana'antu, kamar haɓaka farashin kowane abin hawa a cikin kera motoci sama da $1000. An tilasta wa masana'antar aluminium ta kasar Sin haɓaka tare da daidaito ta hanyar manufar "rufin" na iya samarwa (wanda aka sarrafa a ton miliyan 45), kuma ribar da aka samu a kowace ton na aluminum zai kai yuan 1800 a cikin 2024, yana kafa yanayin ci gaba mai kyau a cikin masana'antu.

2. Copper masana'antu: Tariff binciken yana haifar da samar da tsaro game da farashin farashin

Trump 232 Bincike da Gasar Albarkatun Dabaru

Gwamnatin Trump ta kaddamar da wani bincike na sashe na 232 kan jan karfe, da nufin rarraba shi a matsayin "kayan tsaro mai mahimmanci" da kuma yiwuwar sanya haraji kan manyan kayayyaki kamar Chile da Kanada. Amurka ta dogara sosai kan shigo da tagulla, kuma manufofin harajin za su kara tsadar kayayyaki a wurare masu mahimmanci kamar motocin lantarki da na'urori masu auna sigina. Kasuwar ta fuskanci saurin siyar da ita, inda farashin tagulla na gaba na New York ya tashi da kashi 2.4% a lokaci guda, sannan farashin hannayen jarin kamfanonin hakar ma'adinai na Amurka (kamar McMoran Copper Gold) ya tashi sama da kashi 6% bayan sa'o'i.

Hadarin sarkar samar da kayayyaki na duniya da matakan da ake tsammani

Idan an sanya jadawalin kuɗin fito na 25% akan tagulla, yana iya haifar da matakan ƙima daga manyan masu kaya. Kasar Chile, a matsayin kasar da ta fi kowacce fitar da tagulla a duniya, tana fuskantar hadarin gazawar hanyoyin samar da wutar lantarki tare da takunkumin harajin kwastam, wanda zai iya haifar da hauhawar farashin tagulla a duniya. Kwarewar tarihi ta nuna cewa, harajin sashe na 232 ya kan jawo shari'ar WTO da ramuwar gayya daga abokan ciniki, kamar Canada da Tarayyar Turai na shirin sanya harajin ramuwar gayya kan kayayyakin Amurka, wanda ka iya yin tasiri ga harkokin noma da masana'antu na Amurka.

Haɗin farashin aluminium na jan karfe da tasirin canji na kasuwa

Akwai alaƙa mai mahimmanci tsakanin yanayin farashin jan ƙarfe da aluminum, musamman lokacin da buƙatun abubuwan more rayuwa da masana'antu suka sake yin tasiri. Tashin farashin aluminium na iya maye gurbin buƙatun jan ƙarfe, kamar maye gurbin aluminum don jan ƙarfe a cikin yanayin ɗaukar nauyi na mota. Amma rashin maye gurbin tagulla a fannoni kamar watsa wutar lantarki da semiconductor ya sa manufarta ta jadawalin kuɗin fito ta yi tasiri sosai kan sarkar masana'antu ta duniya. Idan Amurka ta sanya haraji kan tagulla, za ta iya kara farashin tagulla a duniya, yayin da a kaikaice ke kara tabarbarewar kasuwar aluminium saboda alakar farashin aluminum.

3. Maganin Masana'antu: Dama da Kalubale a ƙarƙashin Wasan Siyasa

Masana'antar Aluminum: Aluminum da aka sake yin fa'ida da tuƙi mai tsayi biyu

Masana'antar aluminium ta kasar Sin za ta ci gaba da hanyar "jumlar sarrafawa da inganta tsarin", kuma ana sa ran samar da aluminium da aka sake yin fa'ida zai kai tan miliyan 15 nan da shekarar 2028, kuma girman kasuwar aluminium mai tsayi (falayen jiragen sama da na motoci) zai wuce yuan biliyan 35. Kamfanoni suna buƙatar kula da rufaffiyar ginin tsarin sake amfani da aluminium na sharar gida (kamar tsarin yankin Shunbo Alloy) da ci gaban fasaha (kamar su.7xxx jerin babban ƙarfin aluminum gami).

Masana'antar tagulla: tsaro wadata da haɗarin kasuwanci tare

Manufofin haraji na Trump na iya hanzarta sake fasalin tsarin samar da tagulla na duniya, kuma fadada karfin samar da kayayyaki a cikin gida a Amurka (kamar ma'adinin jan karfe na Rio Tinto na Arizona) zai dauki lokaci don tantancewa. Ya kamata masana'antar tagulla ta kasar Sin su yi taka tsan-tsan game da watsar da tsadar kayayyaki da harajin kwastam ke haifarwa, tare da yin amfani da damar samun karuwar bukatu a fannoni kamar sabbin motocin makamashi da AI.

Dogon Tasirin Wasan Siyasa akan Kasuwa

Mahimman manufofin jadawalin kuɗin fito shine "musanya farashin mabukaci don kariyar masana'antu", wanda zai iya hana haɓaka kasuwancin duniya a cikin dogon lokaci. Kamfanoni suna buƙatar katange kasada ta hanyar sayayya iri-iri da tsarin yanki (kamar cinikin zirga-zirgar jiragen ruwa na kudu maso gabashin Asiya), tare da mai da hankali kan sauye-sauyen dokokin WTO da ci gaba a cikin yarjejeniyoyin kasuwanci na yanki (kamar CPTPP).

Gabaɗaya, masana'antar tagulla da aluminium suna fuskantar sauyi biyu na manufofin jadawalin kuɗin fito da haɓaka masana'antu. Masana'antar aluminum tana samun ci gaba mai ƙarfi ta hanyar aluminum da aka sake yin fa'ida da fasaha mai mahimmanci, yayin da masana'antar tagulla ke buƙatar neman daidaito tsakanin tsaro wadata da haɗarin kasuwanci. Wasannin siyasa na iya tsananta canjin farashi na ɗan gajeren lokaci, amma yanayin duniya zuwa tsaka tsaki na carbon da kuma buƙatar haɓaka masana'antu har yanzu suna ba da ingantaccen tallafi don ci gaban masana'antu na dogon lokaci.