1. Isiphithiphithi sokutshala izimali kanye nokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe:umqondo oyisisekelo wokwanda kwezimboni

Ngokusho kwedatha evela ku-China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, inkomba yokutshalwa kwezimali yokuncibilikisa i-aluminium ngo-Ephreli yeqe yafinyelela ku-172.5, okuwukunyuka okukhulu uma kuqhathaniswa nenyanga edlule, okubonisa izinkomba ezintathu ezibalulekile zesakhiwo samasu ebhizinisi.

Ukunwetshwa kwamandla aluhlaza: Ngokujula kwethagethi “yekhabhoni embaxambili”, ukwakhiwa kwezisekelo ze-aluminiyamu yamandla kagesi e-Yunnan, e-Guangxi nakwezinye izifunda kuyakhula ngesivinini, futhi izindleko zamandla aluhlaza ziphansi ngokufinyelela ku-0.28 yuan/kWh, okugqugquzela amabhizinisi e-aluminiyamu e-electrolytic ukuze ashintshe umthamo wawo wokukhiqiza aye ezindaweni ezinekhabhoni ephansi. Isibonelo, inkampani ethile ye-aluminium e-Shandong ishintshe amandla ayo okukhiqiza ku-Yunnan, ithola ukwehla kwezindleko zama-yuan angu-300 ngethani ngalinye le-aluminium.

Uguquko lwezobuchwepheshe olusezingeni eliphezulu: Amabhizinisi andisa ukutshalwa kwezimali kumishini ye-aluminium foil yebhethri engu-6 μm ultra-thin aluminium,i-aerospace aluminium, nezinye izinkambu. Isibonelo, ubuchwepheshe bokushukumisa ugesi bukhuphule isivuno se-aluminium foil engu-8 μ m saya ku-92%, kanti umkhawulo wenzuzo enkulu yemikhiqizo ephezulu ye-value-added usudlule ama-40%.

Ukuqinisa ukusimama kwe-supply chain: Ekuphenduleni izingxabano zokuhwebelana zamazwe ngamazwe, amabhizinisi ahamba phambili adale inethiwekhi yokugaywa kabusha kwe-aluminiyamu yase-Southeast Asia, ehlisa izindleko zempahla eluhlaza ngo-15%, kuyilapho "umbuthano wokunikezwa kwehora lesigamu" wasekhaya ufinyeze izindleko zezokuthutha ngo-120 yuan/ton.

2. Ukwehlukaniswa kokukhiqiza: umdlalo phakathi kokwandisa ukukhiqizwa kwe-aluminum ye-electrolytic kanye nokuncipha kokukhiqizwa kwe-alumina

Inkomba yokukhiqiza i-aluminium ye-electrolytic ikhuphuke yafinyelela ku-22.9 (+1.4%) ngo-April, kuyilapho inkomba yokukhiqiza i-alumina yehle yaya ku-52.5 (-4.9%), iveza ukungqubuzana okukhulu okuthathu kuphethini yokuhlinzeka nesidingo.

I-aluminiyamu ye-electrolytic eqhutshwa inzuzo: Inzuzo ngethani ngalinye le-aluminium ihlala ingaphezulu kwama-yuan angu-3000, ikhuthaza amabhizinisi ukuthi aqalise kabusha ukukhiqiza (njengase-Guangxi naseSichuan) futhi akhulule umthamo wokukhiqiza omusha (e-Qinghai nase-Yunnan), enekhono lokusebenza lamathani ayizigidi ezingu-43.83 kanye nezinga lokusebenza elingaphezu kuka-96%.

Ukubuya okunengqondo kwamanani entengo ye-alumina: Ngemva kokukhuphuka konyaka nonyaka ngama-39.9% entengo ye-alumina ngo-2024, amanani okusebenza e-Shanxi, e-Henan nakwezinye izindawo ehle ngamaphesenti angu-3-6 ngo-April ngenxa yokukhululwa kwamandla okukhiqiza phesheya (izindawo ezintsha zezimayini eGuinea) nokugcinwa kwamabhizinisi asekhaya abiza kakhulu, ukunciphisa ingcindezi yentengo.

Ibhalansi eguquguqukayo ye-Inventory: Ukuncipha kwe-inventory ye-electrolytic aluminium kuyakhula ngesivinini (i-inventory yehle ngamathani angu-30000 ngo-April), kuyilapho ukujikeleza kwe-alumina kuxega, futhi amanani entengo aqhubeka ehla, okuholela ekwabiweni kabusha kwenzuzo phezulu naphansi komfula.

3. Ukwenyuka kwenzuzo: amandla okukhulisa imali engenayo ngo-4% kanye nokukhuphuka kwenzuzo ngo-37.6%

Imali engenayo eyinhloko yebhizinisi kanye nenzuzo yomkhakha wokuncibilikisa i-aluminium kokubili kwenyukile, futhi amandla okushayela akhona.

Ukwenziwa ngcono kwesakhiwo somkhiqizo: Ingxenye yezinto ze-aluminium ezisezingeni eliphezulu inyukile (njengokukhuphuka ngo-206% ekuthengisweni kwamakesi ebhethri yemoto yamandla amasha), okunciphisa ingcindezi ephansi ekuthunyelweni kwamanye amazwe (inkomba ye-aluminium yokuthekelisa yehlele ku- -88.0).

Uguquko lokulawulwa kwezindleko: Ugesi oluhlaza uthatha indawo yamandla ashisayo ukuze kwehliswe izindleko zokusetshenziswa kwamandla ngo-15%, futhi udoti we-aluminiyamu ubuchwepheshe buqinisekisa inzuzo eyisamba esingu-25% ye-aluminium egaywe kabusha (8% ephakeme kune-electrolytic aluminium).

Ukukhishwa komthelela wesikali: Amabhizinisi aphezulu afinyelela ukuhlanganiswa kwe-alumina electrolytic processing ngokuhlanganiswa nokutholwa (njengokutholwa kwe-Zhongfu Industrial amandla okukhiqiza i-electrolytic aluminium), ehlisa izindleko zeyunithi ngo-10%.

4. Izingozi nezinselele: Ukukhathazeka Okufihliwe Ngaphansi Kokukhula Okuphezulu

Umthamo wokugcina ophansi: Izinga lokusebenza lefoyili ye-aluminium yendabuko ngaphezu kuka-10 μ m lingaphansi kuka-60%, futhi impi yentengo icindezela amamajini enzuzo.

Ibhodlela lokuguqulwa kwezobuchwepheshe: Ukuncika ezigayweni eziginqikayo ezingeni eliphezulu ezithengwa kwamanye amazwe kudlula u-60%, futhi izinga lokuhluleka kokulungisa amaphutha lifinyelela ku-40%, okungenzeka liphuthe isikhathi sewindi lobuchwepheshe.

Ukungaqiniseki kwenqubomgomo: Ukufakwa kwe-United States kwezintela ezisuka ku-34% kuya ku-145% e-China kubangele ukuguquguquka okukhulu kwamanani e-aluminium (nge-Lunan Aluminium yehla yaya ku-19530 yuan/ton ngesinye isikhathi), okubeka ingcindezi emabhizinisini agxile ekuthumeleni kwamanye amazwe.

5. Umbono wesikhathi esizayo: ukusuka “ekukhuleni kwesikali” kuye “kugxuma kwekhwalithi”

Ukuhlelwa Kabusha Kwamandla Esifunda: Izizinda zamandla aluhlaza e-Yunnan, e-Guangxi, nakwezinye izifunda zingase zeqe u-40% womthamo wazo wokukhiqiza ngo-2030, zenze imboni evaliwe "ye-hydropower aluminium high-end processing recycling".

Ukuphumelela kwezithiyo zobuchwepheshe: Izinga lendawo ye-aluminium foil engaphansi kuka-8 μ m lenyuswe laya ku-80%, futhi ubuchwepheshe bokuncibilika kwe-hydrogen bunganciphisa ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni ngethani ngalinye le-aluminium ngama-70%.

Isakhiwo sokuhwebelana komhlaba wonke: Ngokusekelwe ku-RCEP, qinisa ukubambisana ku-bauxite yaseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia futhi wakhe uchungechunge olunqamula umngcele "lwe-China encibilikisa i-ASEAN icubungula ukuthengiswa komhlaba wonke".