1. Kusokonekera kwazachuma ndi kukwezedwa kwaukadaulo:malingaliro oyambira pakukula kwa mafakitale

Malinga ndi zomwe bungwe la China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association linapeza, chiwerengero cha ndalama zosungunula aluminiyamu mu April chinalumphira kufika pa 172.5, kuwonjezeka kwakukulu poyerekeza ndi mwezi wapitawo, kusonyeza mbali zitatu zazikulu za kayendetsedwe ka bizinesi.

Kukulitsa mphamvu yamagetsi obiriwira: Ndi kuzama kwa chandamale cha "carbon wapawiri", ntchito yomanga maziko a aluminiyamu ya hydropower ku Yunnan, Guangxi ndi madera ena ikupita patsogolo, ndipo mtengo wamagetsi obiriwira ndiwotsika kwambiri mpaka 0.28 yuan/kWh, kulimbikitsa mabizinesi a aluminiyamu a electrolytic kuti asinthe mphamvu zawo zopangira kumadera opanda mpweya. Mwachitsanzo, kampani ina ya aluminiyamu ku Shandong yasintha mphamvu zake zopangira ku Yunnan, ndikuchepetsa mtengo wa yuan 300 pa tani ya aluminiyamu.

Kusintha kwamatekinoloje apamwamba kwambiri: Mabizinesi amachulukitsa ndalama pazida za 6 μm ultra-thin batri aluminium zojambulazo,mlengalenga aluminiyamu, ndi magawo ena. Mwachitsanzo, ukadaulo wamagetsi wokoka maginito wawonjezera zokolola za 8 μ m zotayidwa zotayidwa mpaka 92%, ndipo phindu lalikulu lazinthu zowonjezera zamtengo wapatali zapitilira 40%.

Kulimbitsa mphamvu zogulitsira zinthu: Poyankha kusamvana kwa malonda apadziko lonse lapansi, mabizinesi otsogola akhazikitsa network yobwezeretsanso aluminiyamu yakumwera chakum'mawa kwa Asia, kuchepetsa mtengo wazinthu zopangira ndi 15%, pomwe "gulu la ola la theka la ola" lafupikitsa mtengo wazinthu ndi 120 yuan / tani.

2. Kusiyana kwa kupanga: masewera pakati pa kuchulukitsa kupanga aluminiyamu ya electrolytic ndi kuchepa kwa aluminiyamu

Electrolytic aluminiyamu yopanga index idakwera mpaka 22.9 (+1.4%) mu Epulo, pomwe ma alumina opanga ma aluminiyamu adatsika mpaka 52.5 (-4.9%), akuwonetsa zotsutsana zazikulu zitatu pazakudya ndi zofunikira.

Phindu lotengeka electrolytic aluminiyamu: Phindu pa tani zotayidwa amakhalabe pamwamba 3000 yuan, zolimbikitsa mabizinezi kuyambiranso kupanga (monga Guangxi ndi Sichuan) ndi kumasula mphamvu zatsopano kupanga (ku Qinghai ndi Yunnan), ndi mphamvu opareshoni matani 43.83 miliyoni ndi mlingo ntchito pa 96%.

Zomveka kubwerera mitengo alumina: Patapita chaka ndi chaka kuwonjezeka kwa 39,9% mu mitengo alumina mu 2024, mitengo ntchito mu Shanxi, Henan ndi malo ena utachepa ndi 3-6 peresenti mfundo mu April chifukwa amasulidwe mphamvu kupanga kunja (madera atsopano migodi ku Guinea) ndi kukonza mabizinezi zoweta mkulu mtengo, kuchepetsa kupanikizika kwa mtengo.

Kuchuluka kwamphamvu kwa zinthu: Kuchepa kwa zinthu za aluminiyamu ya electrolytic kukuchulukirachulukira (kuwerengera kudatsika ndi matani 30000 mu Epulo), pomwe kufalikira kwa aluminiyamu kumakhala kotayirira, ndipo mitengo yamalo ikupitilizabe kutsika, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti phindu ligawidwe m'mwamba ndi pansi.

3. Kudumpha kwa phindu: mphamvu yoyendetsera ndalama za 4% ndi kuwonjezeka kwa phindu kwa 37.6%

Ndalama zazikulu zamabizinesi ndi phindu lamakampani osungunula aluminiyamu zawonjezeka, ndipo mphamvu yayikulu yoyendetsa ili mkati.

Kukhathamiritsa kwa kapangidwe kazinthu: Gawo la zida za aluminiyamu zapamwamba zawonjezeka (monga kuwonjezeka kwa 206% kwa malonda a batire lamoto wamagetsi atsopano), kuthetseratu kutsika kwapang'onopang'ono kwa zotumiza kunja (chilolezo cha aluminiyamu chotumiza kunja chatsikira ku -88.0).

Kusintha kwamitengo: Magetsi obiriwira amalowa m'malo mwa mphamvu yotentha kuti achepetse kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu ndi 15%, ndipo umisiri wowonongeka wa aluminiyamu wobwezeretsanso zinthu umatsimikizira kuti phindu lalikulu la 25% la aluminiyamu yobwezeretsanso (8% kuposa aluminiyumu ya electrolytic).

Kutulutsa kwamphamvu: Mabizinesi apamwamba amakwaniritsa kuphatikiza kwa alumina electrolytic aluminium processing kudzera pakuphatikizana ndi kugula (monga Zhongfu Industrial kupeza mphamvu yopanga aluminiyamu ya electrolytic), kuchepetsa mtengo wagawo ndi 10%.

4. Zowopsa ndi Zovuta: Zovuta Zobisika pansi pa Kukula Kwakukulu

Kutsika kwapang'onopang'ono: Kuthamanga kwa zojambula za aluminiyamu zachikhalidwe pamwamba pa 10 μ m ndi zosakwana 60%, ndipo nkhondo yamtengo wapatali ikupondereza malire a phindu.

Vuto lakusintha kwaukadaulo: Kudalira mphero zogulira zotsika kwambiri zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja kumapitilira 60%, ndipo kulephera kwa zida kumafika 40%, zomwe zitha kuphonya nthawi yazenera laukadaulo.

Kusatsimikizika kwa mfundo: Kuyika kwa United States mitengo yamitengo kuyambira 34% mpaka 145% ku China kwadzetsa kusinthasintha kwakukulu kwamitengo ya aluminiyamu (ndi Lunan Aluminium kutsika mpaka 19530 yuan/tani pa nthawi ina), kuyika chitsenderezo pamabizinesi omwe amakonda kutumiza kunja.

5. Masomphenya amtsogolo: kuchokera pa "kukula" mpaka "kudumpha kwabwino"

Kukonzanso Mphamvu Zachigawo: Maziko amagetsi obiriwira ku Yunnan, Guangxi, ndi madera ena atha kupitilira 40% ya mphamvu zawo zopangira pofika chaka cha 2030, ndikupanga makampani otsekeka a "hydropower aluminiyamu apamwamba kwambiri obwezeretsanso".

Kupambana kwa zotchinga zaukadaulo: Kuchuluka kwa zotchinga za aluminiyamu pansi pa 8 μ m kwawonjezeka mpaka 80%, ndipo ukadaulo wosungunuka wa haidrojeni ukhoza kuchepetsa kutulutsa mpweya wa kaboni pa tani imodzi ya aluminiyamu ndi 70%.

Masanjidwe a Globalization: Kutengera RCEP, kulitsa mgwirizano ku Southeast Asia bauxite ndikupanga unyolo wodutsa malire a "China smelting ASEAN processing global sales".