1. Kev nqis peev frenzy thiab thev naus laus zis kho dua tshiab: lub hauv paus ntsiab lus ntawm kev lag luam nthuav dav

Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Tuam Tshoj Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, cov peev txheej Performance index rau txhuas smelting nyob rau lub Plaub Hlis tau dhia mus rau 172.5, ib qho tseem ceeb nce piv rau lub hli dhau los, qhia txog peb cov lus qhia tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam tawm tswv yim.

Lub zog ntsuab muaj peev xwm nthuav dav: Nrog rau qhov tob ntawm "dual carbon" lub hom phiaj, kev tsim kho ntawm hydropower aluminium puag hauv Yunnan, Guangxi thiab lwm thaj chaw tau nrawm dua, thiab tus nqi ntawm lub zog ntsuab yog qis li 0.28 yuan / kWh, txhawb nqa cov lag luam electrolytic aluminium kom hloov lawv lub peev xwm ntau lawm rau thaj chaw uas muaj cov pa roj carbon tsawg. Piv txwv li, ib lub tuam txhab txhuas hauv Shandong tau hloov nws lub peev xwm ntau lawm mus rau Yunnan, ua tiav tus nqi txo ntawm 300 yuan ib tuj ntawm txhuas.

Kev hloov pauv thev naus laus zis siab kawg: Kev lag luam nce peev hauv cov khoom siv rau 6 μ m ultra-thin roj teeb txhuas ntawv ci,aerospace aluminium, thiab lwm yam. Piv txwv li, electromagnetic nplawm tshuab tau nce cov txiaj ntsig ntawm 8 μ m txhuas ntawv ci rau 92%, thiab cov txiaj ntsig tag nrho ntawm cov khoom muaj nqis ntxiv tau tshaj 40%.

Txhim kho cov saw hlau resilience: Hauv kev teb rau kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb kev sib txhuam, cov tuam txhab ua lag luam tau tso tawm cov neeg Esxias sab hnub tuaj siv cov khoom siv hluav taws xob rov ua dua tshiab, txo cov nqi raw khoom los ntawm 15%, thaum lub tsev "ib nrab teev khoom vaj huam sib luag" tau luv nqi logistics los ntawm 120 yuan / tuj.

2. Kev sib txawv ntau lawm: qhov kev ua si ntawm kev nce electrolytic aluminium ntau lawm thiab txo qis alumina ntau lawm

Lub electrolytic aluminium ntau lawm Performance index nce mus rau 22.9 (+1.4%) nyob rau hauv lub Plaub Hlis, thaum lub alumina ntau lawm Performance index poob mus rau 52.5 (-4.9%), nthuav peb loj contradictions nyob rau hauv cov khoom thiab thov qauv.

Cov txiaj ntsig tau los ntawm electrolytic aluminium: Cov nyiaj tau los ntawm ib tuj ntawm txhuas tseem nyob siab dua 3000 yuan, txhawb kev lag luam kom rov pib tsim khoom (xws li hauv Guangxi thiab Sichuan) thiab tso tawm cov peev txheej tshiab (hauv Qinghai thiab Yunnan), muaj peev xwm ua haujlwm ntawm 43.83 lab tons thiab kev ua haujlwm ntawm ntau dua 96%.

Kev rov qab los ntawm cov nqi alumina: Tom qab ib xyoos-rau-xyoo nce ntawm 39.9% hauv alumina tus nqi hauv 2024, cov nqi khiav lag luam hauv Shanxi, Henan thiab lwm qhov chaw tau txo qis los ntawm 3-6 feem pua ​​​​ntawm lub Plaub Hlis vim qhov kev tso tawm ntawm cov peev txheej tsim tawm txawv teb chaws (qhov chaw mining tshiab hauv Guinea) thiab kev saib xyuas ntawm cov tuam txhab lag luam siab nqi, txo tus nqi siab.

Cov khoom lag luam dynamic tshuav: Lub depletion ntawm kev sib raug zoo cov khoom ntawm electrolytic aluminium yog accelerating (cov khoom muag poob los ntawm 30000 tons nyob rau hauv lub Plaub Hlis), thaum lub sij hawm ntawm alumina yog xoob, thiab cov nqi ntawm qhov chaw txuas mus rau hauv qab, ua rau cov nyiaj tau los thiab downstream redistribution.

3. Cov txiaj ntsig leap: tsav lub zog rau cov nyiaj tau los loj hlob ntawm 4% thiab cov nyiaj tau los ntawm 37.6%

Cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev lag luam tseem ceeb thiab cov txiaj ntsig ntawm kev lag luam aluminium smelting muaj ob qho tib si nce, thiab cov tub ntxhais tsav tsheb nyob hauv.

Cov khoom lag luam optimization: Qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm high-end aluminium cov ntaub ntawv tau nce (xws li 206% nce hauv kev muag khoom ntawm lub zog tshiab lub tsheb roj teeb), offsetting downward siab rau exports (aluminium export Performance index tau poob mus rau -88.0).

Kev tswj hwm tus nqi hloov pauv: hluav taws xob ntsuab hloov lub zog hluav taws xob los txo cov nqi siv hluav taws xob los ntawm 15%, thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob siv hluav taws xob pov tseg ua kom cov nyiaj tau los tag nrho ntawm 25% rau cov khoom siv rov ua dua tshiab (8% siab dua electrolytic aluminium).

Scale nyhuv tso tawm: Cov lag luam sab saum toj ua tiav kev sib koom ua ke ntawm alumina electrolytic aluminium ua los ntawm kev sib koom ua ke thiab kev yuav khoom (xws li Zhongfu Industrial tau txais cov khoom siv hluav taws xob electrolytic aluminium), txo cov nqi tsev los ntawm 10%.

4. Kev pheej hmoo thiab kev nyuaj: Kev txhawj xeeb zais nyob rau hauv kev loj hlob siab

Tsawg kawg overcapacity: Kev khiav hauj lwm tus nqi ntawm cov tsoos txhuas ntawv nyiaj saum toj no 10 μ m yog tsawg dua 60%, thiab tus nqi tsov rog yog compressing profit margins.

Technological transformation bottleneck: Qhov kev vam khom ntawm cov khoom siv high-end rolling mills tshaj 60%, thiab qhov tsis ua hauj lwm ntawm cov cuab yeej debugging mus txog 40%, uas tej zaum yuav nco lub sij hawm qhov rais technical.

Txoj cai tsis paub meej: Tebchaws Asmeskas qhov kev txiav txim siab ntawm 34% mus rau 145% ntawm Tuam Tshoj tau ua rau muaj kev hloov pauv loj ntawm cov nqi txhuas (nrog Lunan Aluminium plummeting mus rau 19530 yuan / ton ntawm ib qho), tso siab rau cov lag luam xa tawm.

5. Lub zeem muag yav tom ntej: los ntawm "scale expansion" mus rau "zoo leap"

Kev Txhim Kho Lub Zog Hauv Cheeb Tsam: Lub zog ntsuab hauv Yunnan, Guangxi, thiab lwm thaj chaw tuaj yeem tshaj 40% ntawm lawv cov peev txheej tsim los ntawm 2030, tsim kev lag luam kaw ntawm "hydropower aluminium high-end processing recycling".

Kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov txheej txheem kev teeb tsa: Qhov chaw nyob ntawm cov ntawv txhuas hauv qab 8 μm tau nce mus rau 80%, thiab cov tshuab hydrogen melting tuaj yeem txo cov pa roj carbon emissions ib tuj ntawm txhuas los ntawm 70%.

Globalization layout: Raws li RCEP, sib sib zog nqus kev koom tes nyob rau hauv cov teb chaws Asia bauxite thiab tsim ib tug hla ciam teb saw ntawm "Tuam Tshoj smelting ASEAN ua thoob ntiaj teb kev muag khoom".