Muva nje, uMichael Widmer, i-commodity strategist e-Bank of America, wabelane ngemibono yakhe ngemakethe ye-aluminium embikweni. Ubikezela ukuthi nakuba kunendawo elinganiselwe yokuthi amanani e-aluminium akhuphuke esikhathini esifushane, imakethe ye-aluminium ihlala iqinile futhi amanani e-aluminium kulindeleke ukuthi aqhubeke nokukhula esikhathini eside.

U-Widmer uveze embikweni wakhe ukuthi nakuba kunendawo elinganiselwe yokuthi amanani e-aluminium akhuphuke esikhathini esifushane, imakethe ye-aluminium okwamanje isesimweni esishubile, futhi uma isidingo sikhuphuka futhi, amanani e-aluminium ye-LME kufanele aphinde akhuphuke. Ubikezela ukuthi ngo-2025, inani lentengo ye-aluminium lizofinyelela ku-$ 3000 ngethani ngalinye, futhi imakethe izobhekana negebe lokuhlinzeka kanye nesidingo samathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.1. Lesi sibikezelo asibonisi nje kuphela ukuzethemba okuqinile kuka-Widmer kumkhuba wesikhathi esizayo wemakethe ye-aluminium, kodwa futhi sibonisa izinga lokushuba kwesimo ebudlelwaneni bemakethe ye-aluminium yomhlaba wonke kanye nesidingo.

Ukubikezela okunethemba kuka-Widmer kusekelwe ezintweni eziningi. Okokuqala, ngokusimama komnotho womhlaba, ikakhulukazi ekwakhiweni kwengqalasizinda nokukhiqiza, isidingo se-aluminium kulindeleke ukuthi siqhubeke nokukhula. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuthuthuka okusheshayo kwemboni yezimoto zamandla amasha kuzoletha nesidingo esikhulu emakethe ye-aluminium. Isidingo sei-aluminiumezimotweni zamandla amasha ziphakeme kakhulu kunezimoto zendabuko, ngoba i-aluminium inezinzuzo ezifana ne-lightweight, ukumelana nokugqwala, kanye nokuhamba kahle kwe-thermal, okuyenza ibe yinto ebaluleke kakhulu ekwenzeni izimoto ezintsha zamandla.

Okwesibili, ukulawulwa okuqinile komhlaba wonke kokukhishwa kwekhabhoni nakho kulethe amathuba amasha emakethe ye-aluminium.I-Aluminium, njengempahla engasindi, izosetshenziswa kabanzi emikhakheni efana nezimoto zamandla amasha. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, izinga lokugaywa kabusha kwe-aluminium liphezulu uma kuqhathaniswa, elihambisana nokuthambekela kwentuthuko eqhubekayo emhlabeni wonke. Lezi zici zonke zinomthelela ekuqhubekiseni ukukhula kwesidingo se-aluminium.

Umkhuba wemakethe ye-aluminium nawo ubhekene nezinselelo ezithile. Muva nje, ngenxa yokwenyuka kokunikezwa kanye nesidingo esingena ku-off-season yokusetshenziswa, amanani e-aluminium abe nokwehla okuthile. Kodwa u-Widmer ukholelwa ukuthi lokhu kubuyisela emuva kungokwesikhashana, futhi abashayeli be-macroeconomic kanye nokugcinwa kwezindleko kuzohlinzeka ngokusekela amanani e-aluminium. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ubuye waveza ukuthi njengomkhiqizi omkhulu kanye nomthengi omkhulu we-aluminium, ukushoda kweChina kagesi kungase kuqhubekisele phambili ukushuba kwesimo emakethe ye-aluminium.