Kungekudala, uMichael Widmer, i-commodity strategist kwi-Bank of America, wabelane ngeembono zakhe kwimarike ye-aluminium kwingxelo. Uqikelela ukuba nangona kukho indawo encinci yexabiso le-aluminium ukunyuka kwexesha elifutshane, imarike ye-aluminium ihlala iqinile kwaye amaxabiso e-aluminium kulindeleke ukuba aqhubeke ekhula kwixesha elide.

U-Widmer ubonise kwingxelo yakhe ukuba nangona kukho indawo encinci yamaxabiso e-aluminium ukuba anyuke kwixesha elifutshane, imarike ye-aluminium okwangoku ikwimeko enzima, kwaye emva kokuba imfuno ikhawuleza kwakhona, amaxabiso e-aluminium ye-LME kufuneka avuke kwakhona. Uqikelela ukuba ngo-2025, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo le-aluminium liya kufikelela kwi-3000 yeedola ngeetoni, kwaye imarike iya kujongana nokubonelela kunye nokufunwa kwe-gap ye-2.1 yezigidi zeetoni. Olu qikelelo alubonisi nje ukuzithemba okuqinileyo kuka-Widmer kwindlela yekamva lemarike ye-aluminiyam, kodwa ikwabonakalisa iqondo loxinzelelo kubonelelo lwemalike ye-aluminiyam yehlabathi kunye nobudlelwane bemfuno.

Uqikelelo olunethemba lukaWidmer lusekwe kwizinto ezininzi. Okokuqala, ngokuchacha koqoqosho lwehlabathi, ngakumbi kulwakhiwo lweziseko ezingundoqo kunye nokuveliswa, imfuno ye-aluminiyam kulindeleke ukuba iqhubeke nokukhula. Ukongeza, uphuhliso olukhawulezayo lweshishini elitsha lezithuthi zamandla luya kuzisa imfuno enkulu eyongezelelweyo kwimakethi ye-aluminium. Imfuno yealuminiyamkwizithuthi zamandla amatsha ziphezulu kakhulu kunezo zemveli, kuba i-aluminiyam ineengenelo ezinjengobunzima, ukuchasana nokugqwala, kunye nokuqhuba kakuhle kwe-thermal, okwenza kube yinto eyimfuneko ekwenzeni izithuthi zamandla amatsha.

Okwesibini, ulawulo olungqongqo lwehlabathi jikelele lokukhutshwa kwekhabhoni luzise amathuba amatsha kwimakethi yealuminiyam.Aluminiyam, njengento elula, iya kusetyenziswa ngokubanzi kwiinkalo ezifana neenqwelo zamandla amatsha. Ngelo xesha, izinga lokuphinda lisetyenziswe kwe-aluminiyam liphezulu, elihambelana nomkhwa wophuhliso oluzinzileyo lwehlabathi. Ezi zinto zonke zinegalelo ekuqhubeni ukukhula kwemfuno ye-aluminiyam.

Intsingiselo yemarike ye-aluminium nayo ijongene nemingeni ethile. Kutshanje, ngenxa yokunyuka kobonelelo kunye nemfuno yokungena kwixesha elingekhoyo lokusetyenziswa, amaxabiso e-aluminium afumene ukwehla okuthile. Kodwa u-Widmer ukholelwa ukuba le nto yokutsala yesikhashana, kwaye abaqhubi be-macroeconomic kunye nokugcinwa kweendleko baya kunika inkxaso kumaxabiso e-aluminium. Ukongeza, waphinda wabonisa ukuba njengomvelisi omkhulu kunye nomthengi we-aluminium, ukunqongophala kweChina yokubonelela ngombane kunokunyusa ngakumbi uxinzelelo kwimarike ye-aluminium.