Aluminum industry dynamics

The adjustment of US aluminum import tariffs has sparked controversy: The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association expresses strong dissatisfaction with the US adjustment of aluminum import tariffs, believing that it will disrupt the supply and demand balance of the global aluminum industry chain, lead to price fluctuations, and affect the interests of global aluminum producers, traders, and consumers. Aluminum associations in Canada, Europe, and other regions have also expressed concerns about this policy.

Electrolytic aluminum inventory increases: On February 18th, electrolytic aluminum inventory in major markets increased by 7000 tons compared to the previous trading day, with slight growth in Wuxi, Foshan, and Gongyi markets.

Enterprise dynamics

Minmetals Resources acquires Anglo American nickel business: Minmetals Resources plans to acquire Anglo American’s nickel business in Brazil, including the Barro Alto and Codemin nickel iron production projects with an annual output of approximately 400000 tons. This move marks the first investment by Minmetals Resources in Brazil and further expands its base metal business.

Haomei New Materials sets up a joint venture in Morocco: Haomei New Materials cooperates with Lingyun Industry to establish a joint venture in Morocco to build a production base for new energy battery casings and vehicle structural components, radiating to the European and North African markets.

Industry outlook

Trend of Nonferrous Metal Prices in 2025: Due to low global inventory, non-ferrous metal prices may show a trend of easy rise but difficult fall in 2025. The supply and demand gap of electrolytic aluminum is gradually emerging, and the upward channel of aluminum prices may become more smooth.

Gold market performance: International precious metal futures have generally risen, with COMEX gold futures reporting $2954.4 per ounce, an increase of 1.48%. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut cycle and expectations of reinflation support the strengthening of gold prices.

Policy and Economic Impact

The impact of Federal Reserve policies: Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that inflation is expected to continue to decline and interest rate cuts will occur in 2025, and the impact of tariffs on prices will be mild and non persistent.

China’s demand rebounds: China’s demand for non-ferrous metals accounts for half of the world’s total, and the demand recovery in 2025 will bring strong supply and demand drivers, especially in the fields of new energy and AI.