On March 12, 2025, data released by Marubeni Corporation revealed that aluminum inventories at Japan’s three major ports recently dropped to 313,400 metric tons (as of the end of February 2025), marking the lowest level since September 2022. The inventory distribution across Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka ports stood at 42.6%, 52%, and 5.4%, respectively, reflecting severe turbulence in the global aluminum supply chain.  

Surging Demand Emerges as the Primary Driver

The wave of automotive electrification has directly fueled aluminum consumption. Japanese automakers such as Toyota and Honda saw a 28% year-on-year surge in aluminum body panel procurement in February, with Tesla Model Y’s market share in Japan exceeds 12%, adding more support. Meanwhile, Japan’s “Green Industry Revitalization Plan,” which mandates a 40% increase in construction-related aluminum usage by 2027, has prompted developers to stockpile materials early. Statistics show aluminum demand in the construction sector alone grew 19% compared to the same period last year.  

Major Shifts in Trade Routes

Potential U.S. tariffs on aluminum have forced Japanese traders to pivot rapidly toward Southeast Asian and European markets. In the first two months of 2025, Japan’s aluminum exports to Vietnam and Thailand skyrocketed by 57%, while its U.S.-bound exports plummeted from 18% to 9% of total shipments. This “detour export” strategy has directly drained port inventories. Compounding the strain, global aluminum inventories are also tightening—LME (London Metal Exchange) stocks fell to 142,000 metric tons, a five-year low—intensifying supply chain pressures. 

Cost Pressures Suppress Imports

Japan’s aluminum import costs have risen 12% year-on-year, but domestic spot prices inched up only 3%, narrowing the price spread and incentivizing companies to deplete existing inventories. Coupled with the U.S. dollar index dipping to 104.15, importers’ willingness to restock has weakened further. The Japan Aluminum Association warns that if port inventories fall below 100,000 metric tons, it could trigger a rush to replenish LME Asian delivery warehouses, driving up global aluminum prices.  

Three Future Risk Warnings

1. Indonesia’s Nickel Export Policies May Impact Electrolytic Aluminum Costs.

2. Pre-U.S. Election Trade Policy Volatility Risks Disrupting Global Aluminum Supply Chains.

3. China’s Planned 4 Million Metric Tons of New Electrolytic Aluminum Capacity in 2025 Could Reshape Markets.