Recently, Bank of America (BOFA) released its in-depth analysis and future outlook on the global aluminum market. The report predicts that by 2025, the average price of aluminum is expected to reach $3000 per ton (or $1.36 per pound), which not only reflects the market’s optimistic expectations for future aluminum prices, but also reveals profound changes in the supply and demand relationship of the aluminum market.

The most striking aspect of the report is undoubtedly the forecast for the increase in global aluminum supply. Bank of America predicts that by 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of global aluminum supply will only be 1.3%, which is much lower than the average annual supply growth rate of 3.7% in the past decade. This prediction undoubtedly sends a clear signal to the market that the supply growth of the aluminum market will significantly slow down in the future.

Aluminum, as an indispensable basic material in modern industry, has been closely influenced by multiple fields such as the global economy, infrastructure construction, and automobile manufacturing in terms of its price trend. With the gradual recovery of the global economy and the rapid development of emerging markets, the demand for aluminum is showing a sustained growth trend. The growth of the supply side has failed to keep up with the pace of demand, which will inevitably lead to further tension in the market supply and demand relationship.
Bank of America’s forecast is based on this background. The slowdown in supply growth will exacerbate the tight market situation and drive up aluminum prices. For related enterprises in the aluminum industry chain, this is undoubtedly both a challenge and an opportunity. On the one hand, they need to cope with the pressure brought by the rising cost of raw materials; On the other hand, they can also take advantage of the tight market to increase product prices and increase profit margins.
In addition, fluctuations in aluminum prices will also have a significant impact on financial markets. The financial derivatives market related to aluminum, such as futures and options, will fluctuate with the fluctuation of aluminum prices, providing investors with rich trading opportunities and risk management tools.