Recently, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics reveals the development trends of China’s aluminum industry in the first quarter of 2025. The data shows that output of all major aluminum products grew to varying degrees during this period, reflecting the industry’s active momentum driven by market demand, capacity expansion, and other factors.

1. Alumina

In March, China’s alumina output reached 7.475 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. The cumulative output from January to March was 22.596 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%. As a key raw material for electrolytic aluminum production, the significant growth in alumina output stems from multiple factors:

- Stable bauxite supply: Enhanced cooperation between some regions and mining enterprises has ensured a steady supply of bauxite, providing a solid foundation for alumina production.

- Technological innovation: Some alumina producers have optimized production processes through technical breakthroughs, improving capacity utilization and driving output growth.

2. Electrolytic Aluminum

In March, electrolytic aluminum output was 3.746 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. The cumulative output from January to March was 11.066 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. Despite slower growth compared to alumina, this achievement is notable given the industry’s challenges under the “dual carbon” goals:

- Energy consumption constraints: Strict restrictions on capacity expansion due to “dual control” of energy consumption have forced enterprises to optimize existing capacity.

- Green energy adoption: The use of green energy in production has reduced costs and improved efficiency, enabling output growth.

3. Aluminum Products

In March, aluminum products output was 5.982 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. The cumulative output from January to March was 15.405 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, reflecting stable downstream demand:

- Construction sector: Sustained infrastructure development has driven demand for aluminum alloy doors/windows and decorative aluminum products.

- Industrial sector: Lightweighting needs in automotive and electronics manufacturing have further boosted demand for aluminum materials.

4. Aluminum Alloys

Notably, aluminum alloy output grew rapidly, with March output reaching 1.655 million tons (+16.2% YoY) and cumulative output of 4.144 million tons (+13.6% YoY) from January to March. This surge is primarily driven by the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry:

- Lightweighting demand: NEVs require lightweight materials to improve range, making aluminum alloys ideal for vehicle bodies, battery casings, and other components. Rising NEV production has directly fueled demand for aluminum alloys.

Market Implications

- Alumina: Sufficient supply may exert downward pressure on prices, reducing raw material costs for downstream electrolytic aluminum producers but intensifying industry competition.

- Electrolytic Aluminum: Steady output growth could lead to short-term supply surpluses, influencing aluminum price trends.

- Aluminum Products/Alloys: Strong demand highlights the need for enterprises to enhance product quality and technological innovation to maintain competitiveness amid rising output.

Future Challenges

- Environmental protection: Stricter green development requirements will necessitate increased investment in energy conservation, emission reduction, and clean production.

- Global competition: Chinese aluminum enterprises must improve technical capabilities and product quality to expand international market share amid intensifying global rivalry.

The Q1 2025 output data demonstrates the vitality and potential of China’s aluminum industry, while also pointing to the direction for future development. Enterprises should closely monitor market dynamics, seize opportunities, and address challenges to achieve sustainable growth.